A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
